MARKETING TRENDS 267 in the States than in the United Kingdom and the American Good House- keeping readers reported 70 per cent used rouge, compared with only 23 per cent of Woman readers in the 1955 survey. If the Western European markets are to follow the trend on the American market, as I believe they will, then we should shortly expect to see an increase in the sale of cleansing and nourishing creams and lotions, and also in tinted liquid make-up preparations, and possibly in the high stain type of lipstick. Rouge sales will probably not follow the same pattern, as the American complexion demands rouge more than the Western European. Forecasting market trends is always a very dangerous practice, but if the U.S. cosmetic market is the crystal ball for Western European markets, then it is reasonable for us to say that the aerosol package is scheduled to come to the fore in Western Europe. There is little doubt that, from an application point of view, the aerosol package has tremendous advantages with certain cosmetic products and toiletries. Admittedly at the moment the metal canisters used are in the main not as attractive as orthodox containers, but there is no real reason why aerosol packages cannot possess good eye appeal. My point can well be illustrated by observation of the containers which I now have in front of me. Two of the metal containers you will, I think, agree, lack the eye appeal so essential to a cosmetic product, but the other container, although metal, has possibilities. Glass aerosol packages are perhaps an improvement on the metal canisters, but, because of problems of internal pressure, the shape of the container must necessarily be limited. Furthermore, the wall thickness of the glass must be excessive and, to have a reasonable degree of safety, it is wise to coat the outside of the glass with P.V.C. It may well be that, in the very near future, we shall have available aerosol packages made from nylon, and these could be most attractive, as they could be produced in various pastel shades, would be light in weight and possess the required strength in almost any shape. A further development which may well be just round the corner is the aerosol container made from polythene, and the one I have in front of me is, I think you will agree, quite attractive. The use of polythene for aerosol containers does, of course, have the limitation that departure from the spherical shape does raise problems. I hesitate to make any firm forecast on the form which aerosol packages will take in the future but believe that, for the cosmetic industry, the nylon container might •well prove the most useful and attractive. The total sales of aerosols in the United States have risen from 34 million units in 1951, to an estimated sale of 275 million in 1956. Within the total group, insecticides have always topped the market, their sales in 1951 being 17.3 million units, rising through 52/3/4/5 to 35.8, 47-2, 43-2 and 55-9 million units respectively. Hair lacquer sales have during the same period risen from one million

268 JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY OF COSMETIC CHEMISTS to 53.8 million units, with shaving lathers and other personal products rising from 2.65 to 59.6 million units. The estimated value of the United States aerosol market is now about $250 million compared with estimated sales in United Kingdom of oe2.5 million, but the continued growth in both markets is indicative that, in the United Kingdom and Western Europe, this style of package is due to have ever-increasing sales for some years ahead. Sales figures of aerosol packages sold in Western Europe are difficult to obtain, but it is possible that the total sales for 1956 did not reach 19.4 million units. At the beginning of my talk, I spoke of the steady growth of earnings in the majority of European countries. I mentioned that the population of a country was, in my opinion, indicative of the potential purchasing power, and I have illustrated this point as regards the American market. Now we should take a look at the European Free Trade Area. My listeners will be aware of the movement under way for the establish- ment of a common market in Western Europe, and it is envisaged that this common market or free trade area will take at least ten years to complete. I think there is little doubt that the present intention will be accom- plished. The very fact that the peoples of the free countries intermingle to such an extent these days through both commerce and holiday travel is, in itself, establishing a more trustful and friendly relationship between the peoples. At the moment, Belgium, France, Western Germany, Holland, Italy and Luxembourg have signed a treaty to create amongst themselves a customs and economic union, under the title European Economic Com- munity. The United Kingdom is committed to the project of joining the European Free Trade Area but is precluded at the moment because British Imperial Preference Tariffs would be higher than any tariff arrangement would be with the countries of the Common Market. A possible Scandinavian Common Market may be formed, incorporating Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The problem to be solved by the United Kingdom before entering E.E.C. is whether foodstuffs could be excluded from its scope. If this proviso can be accepted, then only 10 per cent of the United Kingdom imports from the Commonwealth would be affected. It is likely that the Commonwealth countries will not object to the United Kingdom participating in the Free Trade Area, and that the preferences at present accorded by the Common- wealth countries to industrial goods imported from the United Kingdom will not be jeopardised. If the United Kingdom joins, the development of the complete project may be quicker than at present visualised, and it is probable that the European market will become progressively similar to the United States market. Other countries which may join E.E.C. under special terms are Iceland, Eire, Portugal, Spain, Turkey and Greece.